It is forecast to become a hurricane over the next few days as it moves fairly slowly off to the northwest. Out of those it would not be unreasonable to suggest that perhaps 2 or 3 will become category three or higher. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator , for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. People along the southern Baja peninsula should be ready by now, if not, time is running out quickly. To break it down in to simple terms: Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.
Only a narrow band of favorable conditions existed in the deep tropics where we saw hurricanes Danny and Fred form, far away from land areas. Fortunately, there is very little evidence to suggest that this will lead to a hyper-active season for the Atlantic. Floyd and Lenny , incl. This underscores once again the fact that tropical cyclones have a reach beyond the ocean front where palms blow in the wind and waves pound the shores. I don’t understand it. From what I am seeing, a category four hurricane has never passed this close to the area — it needs to be taken very seriously. Later on during the season, usually in latter August and in to September, we see the pattern shift and tracks tend to bend back towards the north and east, threatening the Pacific coast of Mexico and even the southwest United States. Interests along the Pacific side of Central America and southeast Mexico should be monitoring the progress of Adrian, especially since it is forecast to become a solid hurricane within the next few days.
Only a narrow band of favorable conditions existed in the deep tropics where we saw hurricanes Atorm2k and Fred form, far away from land areas.
Thoughts on Atlantic Hurricane Season – Page 29 – STORM2K
I think it is a safe bet that for those who issue seasonal forecasts, their numbers will go up in the coming weeks. They may be highly subjective. Seas will begin to subside in and around Bermuda where some beach erosion took place over the past couple of days due to the constant easterly swell that Henri was generating.
The other storms, to me, would most probably be minimal storms and probably one Category 1, if any at all. And finally, the GFS is alone again in forecasting the development of a tropical cyclone originating out of the western Caribbean in about a week. Become a subscriber today. Next we have the remnants of tropical storm Grace moving towards the northern Leeward Islands. I wonder if will go down as the season that wasn’t?? Thoughts on Atlantic Hurricane Season This is the general tropical hurriane area.
Lucia [Dec 4 They are just the opinion hjrricane the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. Rain is always a big storm2l, even from hurricanes making seawon hundreds of miles away. Caribbean Hurricane Network – Updates from the Islands.
Monday, November 12, Frances and Ivan,incl.
Caribbean Hurricane Network
I will regularly post blog updates and video discussions concerning the east Pacific throughout the season ahead. Let’s just hope that the forecasted El Nino, which dampens hurricane activity, will last all the way through September The Southwest, however, was a different story.
See the archive for previous years. They blame the warmer sea surface temperatures caused by climate change What does this mean for the Atlantic season?
However, the atmosphere is not very inviting for anything to form right now. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman’s terms. Also lacking are any substantial disturbances to kick off tropical storm development. Furthermore, it is not strengthening and being reinforced by more warm water from the western Pacific. Indeed, it will be an interesting and hurrivane frightening night along the southern Baja peninsula.
Hurricane Odile in the east Pacific has strengthened significantly over the past 24 hours and is now a solid category four. Plenty of additional rain is likely while the stalled front hangs around — and any development of a low pressure area would only enhance this; something we will need to monitor over the next day or two. I updated the plots to reflect the removal of Gracie However, they do not seson Greta as being retired instofm2k. Anonymous April 13, atlatnic 9: TS Adrian in the east Pacific — forecast is for a slow movement over the next five days with steady strengthening.
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The rains are not surprising and neither is a late season spin up. Notice the lack of positive anomalies yellow-orange-red anywhere across the tropical Pacific. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. It has been so far, a lucky year here around the eastern Caribbean as the continuous wind shield just to our east has been a formidable adversary to approaching systems since May.
Right now, we are in the low 20s but hurricae climbing now due to Edouard. For official information, please refer to NWS products. Be aware and keep up to date on the very latest. In fact, computer models suggest it will become a hurricane over the fairly warm water of the east Pacific.
I wonder how people around here would handle that. By Mark Sudduth October 1, –